New data indicates that 2023 is on track to become a record-breaking year, marked by deadly heatwaves, floods, and wildfires. This prediction follows an “extraordinary” surge in October temperatures.
In October, global average air temperatures surpassed the previous October high in 2019 by 0.4°C, primarily driven by carbon emissions and the influence of an El Niño weather phenomenon. This marked the fifth consecutive month of record warmth.
It is highly likely that this year will become the warmest ever recorded, as the last two months of 2023 are unlikely to reverse the trend, with high temperatures persisting into November.
October’s temperature record contributes to a year filled with global heat records being shattered. The number of days exceeding the politically significant 1.5°C warming threshold has reached a new high well before the year’s end.
In July, temperatures were so high that it may have been the hottest month in 120,000 years, while average September temperatures exceeded the previous record by an astonishing 0.5°C.
Although October was not as unusually hot as September, it still set a new record for the month by an “extraordinary” margin, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service. The month was 1.7°C warmer than the pre-industrial average, representing the period before significant fossil fuel burning by humans.
This year’s consistent warmth makes it “virtually certain” that 2023 will claim the title of the warmest year on record, surpassing the previous record set in 2016. Various scientific organizations, including Copernicus, NOAA, and Berkeley Earth, share this assessment.
While many scientists are concerned about the scientific implications of these record-breaking temperatures, they emphasize the real-world consequences of rising temperatures. The impacts of extreme heatwaves and droughts, exacerbated by these high temperatures, have led to human suffering, causing thousands of deaths, livelihood losses, and displacement.
The primary driver of this heat is ongoing carbon dioxide emissions, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels. Additionally, the El Niño event, which brings warm waters to the surface in the east Pacific Ocean, is contributing to the rise in temperatures this year.
Although El Niño conditions have strengthened over recent months, they have not yet reached their peak. This El Niño event differs in certain aspects, and it’s causing a rapid transition from the ocean-cooling La Niña conditions that have suppressed temperatures in recent years. Scientists are uncertain whether this El Niño event is distinct from previous ones, such as those in 1997 and 2015.
To date, 2023 has been a record 1.43°C warmer than pre-industrial levels, according to Copernicus, with high temperatures expected to persist in the coming months.
Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, suggests that a combination of their data and that of the UN indicates that 2023 may experience temperatures “warmer than anything that the planet has seen for 125,000 years.” This conclusion is based on weather station observations, complex climate models, and records from sources like ice cores and tree rings.
These alarming trends set the stage for the UN’s COP28 summit, scheduled to begin on November 30, emphasizing the urgent need for ambitious climate action.
Global impacts of rising temperatures are evident across the world, with many regions experiencing higher-than-average temperatures and extreme conditions. In the UK, temperatures were about 1°C above average, with southern England experiencing a 1.7°C increase. Italy faced temperatures over 3°C higher than normal, coinciding with significant flooding in some areas.
A drought linked to El Niño resulted in the driest October for the Panama Canal since 1950, impacting its operations. Parts of the Middle East have suffered from drought, while East Africa has been affected by deadly floods.
High temperatures have continued into November, with Japan already breaking hundreds of heat records this month. Europe witnessed temperatures exceeding 35°C for the first time ever in November, with various parts of Greece experiencing high readings.
With these soaring temperatures, concerns arise about the potential for further extreme events in the coming months. For example, parts of Australia have already received warnings of an “increased risk” of wildfires.
