A new severe thunderstorm warning, with the potential for tornadoes, is set to impact the southern United States on Thursday, less than two weeks after over a dozen tornadoes struck Louisiana and Mississippi.
The risk of damaging storms, possibly leading to tornado formation, extends from coastal Texas to south-central Louisiana as a storm system develops in the southern Plains.
Key Points:
Ongoing thunderstorms across eastern Texas
Primary threats: Tornadoes and damaging wind gusts in Texas and southern Louisiana
Area of concern: Coastal Texas to south-central Louisiana, including Houston
Timing for the most critical area: Until 5 p.m. in Texas, until 8 p.m. in Louisiana
Additional note: The same storm system will bring much-needed rain to the drought-affected areas of the Mississippi Valley
Confidence in an active tornado day slightly decreased Thursday morning as specific atmospheric conditions required for hazardous storms were not fully in place. Over southern and eastern Texas, widespread cloud cover limited the heat required for robust storm development early Thursday.
Tornadoes remain a possibility from coastal Texas, encompassing the Houston metro area, to south-central Louisiana on Thursday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has designated a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms in this region on Thursday.
Alongside tornadoes, any severe thunderstorm on Thursday may result in hail, damaging wind gusts of up to 60 mph, and heavy rainfall.
The threat of severe storms will persist into Thursday night in Louisiana as the storm system moves from the Plains to the Mississippi Valley.
Much-needed rain will fall across the expansive Mississippi Valley, Midwest, and Southeast as the storm progresses north and eastward on Thursday night into Friday.
This rainfall is crucial for the Lower Mississippi Valley, especially Louisiana and Mississippi, facing severe drought conditions. Louisiana is experiencing its worst drought on record, with 70% of the state under exceptional drought—the highest level according to the US Drought Monitor. A third of Mississippi is also under exceptional drought conditions.
Thursday is expected to bring one to three inches of rain to the Mississippi Valley, with an additional one to two inches possible on Friday in parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast.
While additional severe thunderstorms are possible, the likelihood decreases on Friday from Louisiana to Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, with a marginal risk level (Level 1 out of 5) in place for the region on Friday.
November marks the beginning of a secondary severe weather season in the South, characterized by the clash between cold, Canadian air and lingering warm, moist air over the Gulf of Mexico. This often leads to an increase in damaging thunderstorms from November to December.
